Holocene DA Validation Report

Validation of the custom Holocene Data Assimilation reconstruction against published Holocene global temperature reconstructions. Reference datasets are discovered at runtime from reference_data/ — any CSV with columns age_BP, median, q05, q95 or age_BP, anomaly, uncertainty_1sigma will be used.

GMST Validation Metrics

Pearson correlation (R) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (CE) of the ensemble-median GMST against each reference over their common age range. CE = 1 is perfect; CE = 0 equals climatology; CE < 0 is worse than climatology.

Spatial Anomaly at 6 ka

Mean temperature anomaly for 5500–6500 BP relative to 0–1000 BP baseline. Robinson projection.

Spatial Comparison at 6 ka

Side-by-side 6 ka temperature anomaly for the custom reconstruction and each spatial reference, plus their difference. Pattern correlation (R) and area-weighted RMSE are computed after nearest-neighbor regridding of the reference onto the reconstruction grid.

Proxy-Site Comparison (6 ka)

For each proxy site, the reconstruction’s 6 ka anomaly is sampled via nearest-neighbor on the model grid, then compared to the proxy’s own 6 ka anomaly (5500–6500 BP relative to 0–1000 BP baseline, falling back to the record mean if the modern baseline is absent). R, RMSE, and bias (recon − proxy) summarize the match.

Proxy Database Comparison vs Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022) (shared 1104, custom-only 97, reference-only 172)

Comparison of the proxy records in this run’s lipd_legacy.pkl against Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022), the version used by the published Erb et al. 2022 reconstruction. Records are matched on paleoData_TSid after the same paleoData_inCompilation == Temp12k + paleoData_units == degC filter that da_load_proxies.py applies at runtime.

1,276

Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022) records

1,201

Custom records

1,104

Shared

97

Custom-only

172

Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022)-only

Side-by-side statistics

Statistic	Custom	Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022)
Records	1,201	1,276
Distinct archive types	8	8
Earliest record start (yr BP)	1,277,346	1,277,346
Latest record end (yr BP)	-275	-275
Median record length (yr)	11403	11403
Median observations per record	71	71

Records by archive type

Archive	Shared	Custom-only	Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022)-only	Total
LakeSediment	627	35	67	729
MarineSediment	285	49	72	406
Peat	167	10	24	201
GlacierIce	10	3	5	18
Midden	8	0	2	10
Speleothem	3	0	2	5
Wood	3	0	0	3
GroundIce	1	0	0	1
Total	1104	97	172	1373

Spatial distribution

Temporal coverage

Records covering each 250-yr age bin, partitioned by which database they belong to.

Records exclusive to the custom run (97)

Records present in this reconstruction’s proxy database but absent from Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022) — typically records added in later Temp12k versions or pulled from filtered queries.

TSID	Archive	Dataset	Age range (BP)	n_obs
GH2d963782	MarineSediment	BS79_38.Cacho.2001	867–24,517	71
GH6edd69de	MarineSediment	GeoB33131.Lamy.2002	283–6,990	75
LPD52d54dc4	MarineSediment	GEOFAR_KF16_MgCa.Repschlager.2016	524–11,258	98
LPD537be86c	Peat	SouthernCalifornia.Ohlwein.2012	408–9,276	22
LPD5d932ca5	MarineSediment	PP10-07.Mary.2016	422–10,150	206
LPD71287822	MarineSediment	TTR17_434G.Rodrigo-Gamiz.2014	27–13,728	92
LPD73260700	MarineSediment	PP10-07.Mary.2016	422–10,150	206
LPD74bc6584	LakeSediment	LittlePondRoyalston.Marsicek.2013	0–11,000	221
LPD779b21dc	LakeSediment	BloodPond.Marsicek.2013	0–11,000	221
LPD7abab671-dup	GlacierIce	LawDome.Dahl-Jensen.1999	-45–8,692	35
LPD92d845a8	MarineSediment	PP10-07.Mary.2016	422–10,150	206
LPD9c79485dxxxx	MarineSediment	ODP658C_UK37.Zhao.1995	137–22,589	203
LPDa0c55c63	MarineSediment	PP10-07.Mary.2016	422–10,150	206
LPDadaae75f	MarineSediment	SN-6.Tiwari.2015	154–4,772	36
LPDb59e4b87	Peat	SouthernCalifornia.Ohlwein.2012	10,469–11,446	6
LPDc82d344d	MarineSediment	GEOFAR_KF16_MgCa.Repschlager.2016	524–11,258	98
M2L4bz5nk5qP	LakeSediment	BanksIsland-12.Gajewski.2000	175–10,183	33
M2Lzkp2ld6fP	LakeSediment	BanksIsland-12.Gajewski.2000	175–10,183	33
PYT2264KMU9	LakeSediment	Trout.Irvine.2012	63–9,884	31
PYT2GZRWCSF	LakeSediment	Qipisarqo.Frechette.2009	8–8,634	50
PYT5H6FC5I1	LakeSediment	Qipisarqo.Frechette.2009	8–8,634	50
PYT79QPULU7	LakeSediment	Trout.Irvine.2012	1,784–15,424	67
PYT917S9C8J	MarineSediment	GIK17748-2.Kim.2002	1,080–16,070	54
PYTDSG9BNO2	MarineSediment	GIK23258.Sarnthein.2003	698–13,987	285
PYTH91MXU0Z	MarineSediment	P1003.Sejrup.2011	-48–7,881	649
PYTP4VYPRWB	LakeSediment	UpperFly.Bunbury.2009	0–13,329	53
PYTQ5AK802P	LakeSediment	Holebudalen.Seppa.2009	-10–8,929	66
PYTQBB7JT6P	LakeSediment	sjuuodjijaure.Rosen.2001	167–9,263	48
PYTRS33LNIK	MarineSediment	GIK23258.Sarnthein.2003	698–13,987	285
PYTUQPUNFJT	Peat	Corser.Nichols.2014	103–11,116	36

⬇ Download full CSV (97 rows)

Records exclusive to Temp12k 1.0.2 (Erb et al. 2022) (172)

Records used by the published reconstruction but missing from this custom run — typically records dropped by the user’s filter or removed from later Temp12k versions.

TSID	Archive	Dataset	Age range (BP)	n_obs
GH06e59526	MarineSediment	MD79-257.Levi.2007	1,554–15,695	47
LPD27f34021	Peat	Yakumo.Leipe.2013	40–5,506	38
LPD3267fe5d	MarineSediment	PP10-07.Mary.2016	422–10,150	206
LPD5c8693b4	MarineSediment	MD01-2416.Sarnthien.2004	5,727–11,920	41
LPD7abab671	GlacierIce	LawDome.Dahl-Jensen.1999	-45–8,692	35
M2L1fcqp9rpP	LakeSediment	EC1.Gajewski.1993	58–6,610	32
M2L1r9snju2P	LakeSediment	Atocas.Gauthier.1981	0–11,977	41
M2L68fmqq0lP	LakeSediment	Atocas.Gauthier.1981	0–11,977	41
M2L68iw0l2eP	LakeSediment	NorthPond.Whitehead.1978	-105–13,083	55
M2L6qbln98nP	LakeSediment	LoneFoxLake.MacDonald.1985	-32–12,638	37
M2L726ed2xjP	LakeSediment	CH2.Garralla.1992	1–8,332	89
M2L7thzxje2P	LakeSediment	Hams.Bennett.1987	-29–11,945	82
M2L8sc7gn3mP	LakeSediment	Hams.Bennett.1987	-29–11,945	82
M2LdjjxzkgtP	LakeSediment	Queens.Moser.1990	0–8,840	33
M2Lfut6kmdqP	LakeSediment	Queens.Moser.1990	0–8,840	33
M2Lg77nq75zP	LakeSediment	EC1.Gajewski.1993	58–6,610	32
M2Lh4fhttxhP	LakeSediment	CH2.Garralla.1992	1–8,332	89
M2LiaueutgvP	LakeSediment	Eldora.Maher.1969	9–8,640	44
M2Ll9trg0t0P	LakeSediment	BI2Lake.Gajewski.1992	-42–7,791	43
M2Lmx8lcp55P	LakeSediment	PerchLake_Manitoba.Ritchie.NA	-14–6,058	45
M2LnpuqcuqlP	LakeSediment	BanksIsland-15.Gajewski.2000	14–10,183	62
M2Lq7umd2r5P	LakeSediment	Radtke.Webb.1983	1–13,358	49
M2Lqd7jeqa8P	LakeSediment	BanksIsland-15.Gajewski.2000	14–10,183	62
M2Lqditl4qyP	LakeSediment	Billys.Jacobson.1975	0–11,474	77
M2Lr58abc8kP	LakeSediment	Atocas.Gauthier.1981	0–11,977	41
M2LsdjhmhltP	LakeSediment	SaintCalixte.Larouche.NA	77–11,209	35
M2Ltt67sy8bP	LakeSediment	SaintCalixte.Larouche.NA	77–11,209	35
M2Luwan852aP	LakeSediment	SaintCalixte.Larouche.NA	77–11,209	35
M2Lv9gueit2P	LakeSediment	EC1.Gajewski.1993	58–6,610	32
M2Lvlvf54mwP	LakeSediment	Demont.Kapp.NA	13–13,282	73

⬇ Download full CSV (172 rows)

GMST Time Series

Custom reconstruction ensemble spread alongside reference medians. X-axis runs from the oldest age (left) to present (right).

GMST Ensemble Members (1040 total)

Every ensemble member plotted individually (subsampled to 200 for readability), showing the full reconstruction spread.

GMST Difference (Custom − erb2022_gmst)

Year-by-year difference between the custom reconstruction median and the primary reference. Red = warmer, Blue = cooler.

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